Society & Culture | Prognosemärkte

Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)

Saint Lucia

93.1%

Niue

89.9%

Sri lanka

69.2%

+65 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose37 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

5% more men than women in the US by 2055?

28J

Nein

80.2%

19.8%

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Is Earth flat?

5Mon

Nein

98%

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen51.714,4 $

24h-Volumen101,1 $

POLYMARKET

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Nein

96.8%

3.2%

Community-Prognose67 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Nein

92.9%

7.1%

Community-Prognose101 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

5Mon

Nein

89.9%

10.1%

Community-Prognose38 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Major news story in Jul 2026?

1.0%6T

At least 1

97%

At least 2

-1.0%8%

At least 3

-1.0%5%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen48.198 $

24h-Volumen221 $

KALSHI

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Nein

52.1%

47.9%

Community-Prognose3.478 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will something happen in 2026?

5Mon

95%

Nein

Community-Prognose164 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Charles III remain the king for all of 2026?

5Mon

94.4%

Nein

5.6%

Community-Prognose39 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)

35J

2061 or later

29.2%

2041-2060

19%

2031-2040

12.6%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose13 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I burnout by the end of 2026?

5Mon

Nein

75.5%

24.5%

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Destiny sue anyone?

9Mon

Nein

54.5%

45.5%

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Elon Musk control the SATANZ0Gpo tripcode, used in 4chan's /pol/ board?

5Mon

Nein

95.4%

4.6%

Community-Prognose62 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

55%

Nein

45%

Community-Prognose151 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?

5Mon

Nein

83.4%

16.6%

Community-Prognose6 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nein

95.1%

4.9%

Community-Prognose80 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

165J

Nein

89%

11%

Community-Prognose61 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Nein

58%

42%

Community-Prognose216 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Nein

96%

Community-Prognose54 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Harry Kane Knighted in 2026

1.0%5Mon

Nein

82%

+1.0%18%

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen12.503,8 $

24h-Volumen282,6 $

KALSHI

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Nein

62.7%

37.3%

Community-Prognose101 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

5Mon

Nein

94.1%

5.9%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ]

2Mon

Nein

93%

Community-Prognose102 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Nein

81.2%

18.8%

Community-Prognose118 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Noam Chomsky be alive to witness the development of AGI?

Nein

94.9%

5.1%

Community-Prognose35 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

10J

55.4%

Nein

44.6%

Community-Prognose96 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Did Donald Trump have gay sex?

5Mon

Nein

95.2%

4.8%

Community-Prognose49 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

APUSH cheater prop bets

5Mon

gets in any kind of trouble

55.2%

has it p1

53.6%

is female

53.3%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose39 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Viva.city secure a special jurisdiction?

2028 or later

+0.6%73.6%

2027

-0.4%15.2%

2026

-0.2%7.9%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the One Piece manga reach over 1400 chapters?

88.6%

Nein

11.4%

Community-Prognose82 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the price of private education in Japan be cheaper in 5 years?

53.8%

Nein

46.2%

Community-Prognose14 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?

Nein

72.3%

27.7%

Community-Prognose96 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

8Mon

94.6%

Nein

5.4%

Community-Prognose97 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?

Nein

90.9%

9.1%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I major in math?

Nein

89.9%

10.1%

Community-Prognose47 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?

5Mon

Nein

89.6%

10.4%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Voynich manuscript be deciphered by 2030? 📖🔎⁉️

Nein

82.6%

17.4%

Community-Prognose81 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen before King Charles III dies? [Add Answers!]

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan

100%

Someone becomes a trillionaire

100%

The United Kingdom holds a general election

87.3%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose28 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Bobby Fischer be discovered to still be alive before 2030?

Nein

98.4%

1.6%

Community-Prognose29 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Caroline Ellison next job

5Mon

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

57.6%

Fraudster

50%

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

50%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)

5Mon

Nein

93.6%

6.4%

Community-Prognose7 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

7978J

Other

+0.1%16.5%

Elon Musk

+0.1%13%

Bill Gates

+0.3%12.5%

+97 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose1.286 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Nein

98.2%

1.8%

Community-Prognose192 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will any western country deny women the vote in the 21st century?

74J

Nein

75.4%

24.6%

Community-Prognose20 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?

5Mon

Nein

77%

23%

Community-Prognose40 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

10Mon

Nein

79%

21%

Community-Prognose35 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

62%

Nein

38%

Community-Prognose43 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS