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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wissenschaft

Wissenschaft

112 relevante Märkte für Wissenschaft, quellenübergreifend verfolgt.

Offene Märkte

103

Gesamtvolumen

$73,757,791

24h-Volumen

$1,458,375

Gesamtliquidität

$3,629,994

Offene Märkte

103

Gesamtvolumen

$73,757,791

24h-Volumen

$1,458,375

Gesamtliquidität

$3,629,994

Verwandte Themen

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Themen

Crypto

Bitcoin574

Politics

Middle East372Geopolitik264Politik4132Wahl3210US Politics2332Latin America467

Macro

Fed113Commodities142Corporate Actions216

Sports

Sport6213Soccer3127Baseball592Basketball409E-Sport441FIFA World Cup1020Tennis682American Football303

Tech

Technik629

Science

Wissenschaft103

Weather

Weather268

Theme

Exchange559Stablecoin430

Entity

Binance418

Verwandte Nachrichten

Anthropic’s Claude Tackles Chemistry with NMR Structure AnalysisBlockchain.NewsQuantus’ Q-Day Brings Together Leading Cryptographers, Blockchain Builders, Investors, and Researchers to Prepare for the Post-Quantum FutureBlockchain Reporter
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

3.0%6Mon
December 31
December 31
-3.0%11%
September 30
September 30
6%
June 30
June 30
-0.1%1%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen52,2 Mio. $
24h-Volumen1,4 Mio. $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

6Mon
Manifold Markets
Ja
20.8%
Manifold Markets
Nein
79.2%
Community-Prognose149 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen187.645,5 $
24h-Volumen3786,8 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3.0%6Mon
2
2
+1.5%63%
1
1
-3.0%28%
4
4
+0.1%5%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen2,9 Mio. $
24h-Volumen3956,3 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

0.3%6Mon
Before 2027
Before 2027
+0.3%14%
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
-1.0%1%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029
27%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen257.378,1 $
24h-Volumen1205 $
KalshiKALSHI
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.3%6Mon
Ja
Ja
5%
Nein
Nein
95%
68 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen635.922 $
24h-Volumen2972,9 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

0.3%6Mon
11–13
11–13
+2.0%36%
14–16
14–16
+0.5%36%
17–19
17–19
-2.0%17%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen1,3 Mio. $
24h-Volumen590,2 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

1.3%18T
≤8
≤8
+2.5%49%
9
9
-5.0%25%
10
10
15%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen105.984,4 $
24h-Volumen747,4 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

1Mon
Manifold Markets
Ja
80%
Manifold Markets
Nein
20%
Community-Prognose402 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen206.320,3 $
24h-Volumen342,8 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

3J
Manifold Markets
Ja
57.7%
Manifold Markets
Nein
42.3%
Community-Prognose689 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen659.992,3 $
24h-Volumen193,2 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

6Mon
🇨🇦 Canada
🇨🇦 Canada
23.9%
🇬🇱 Greenland
🇬🇱 Greenland
15.3%
🇮🇸 Iceland
🇮🇸 Iceland
15.3%

+11 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
Gesamtvolumen2533,3 $
24h-Volumen1223,3 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1.2%18T
2nd hottest
2nd hottest
+2.0%86%
3rd hottest
3rd hottest
+0.6%8%
1st hottest
1st hottest
-1.2%6%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen38.390,5 $
24h-Volumen234,8 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

1.4%3Mon
<4m
<4m
+4.0%50%
4.0-4.2m
4.0-4.2m
+1.4%27%
4.2-4.4m
4.2-4.4m
-0.5%13%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen54.188,8 $
24h-Volumen109,8 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?

Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?

0.1%18T
Ja
Ja
2%
Nein
Nein
98%
44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen30.993,9 $
24h-Volumen128,9 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

19T
Manifold Markets
432 or less
0.4%
Manifold Markets
432.0001-432.25
0.4%
Manifold Markets
432.2501-432.5
95.2%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose6 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
Gesamtvolumen10.552,6 $
24h-Volumen980 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

6Mon
Manifold Markets
Ja
96.1%
Manifold Markets
Nein
3.9%
Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen6471,2 $
24h-Volumen500 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will I make IMO in 2028

2J
Manifold Markets
Ja
39.5%
Manifold Markets
Nein
60.5%
Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen1337,3 $
24h-Volumen303,7 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

2J
Manifold Markets
Ja
96%
Manifold Markets
Nein
4%
Community-Prognose996 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen10,3 Mio. $
24h-Volumen90 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

0.5%6Mon
Ja
Ja
+0.0%6%
Nein
Nein
94%
56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen119.637,1 $
24h-Volumen15,7 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

8J
Manifold Markets
Ja
41.9%
Manifold Markets
Nein
58.1%
Community-Prognose85 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen22.312,9 $
24h-Volumen105 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

1J
Manifold Markets
Ja
53.4%
Manifold Markets
Nein
46.6%
Community-Prognose50 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen13.118,5 $
24h-Volumen104,7 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1%9Mon
0
0
+2.0%67%
1
1
21%
2
2
+0.3%5%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen1,1 Mio. $
24h-Volumen2,1 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

0.5%1Mon
Hong Wang
Hong Wang
-0.5%83%
John Pardon
John Pardon
+0.5%65%
Jacob Tsimerman
Jacob Tsimerman
-4.5%62%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

71 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen532.524,3 $
24h-Volumen65,3 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

10Mon
Manifold Markets
Ja
20.2%
Manifold Markets
Nein
79.8%
Community-Prognose32 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen3362,7 $
24h-Volumen200 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.1%6Mon
Ja
Ja
7%
Nein
Nein
94%
60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen224.938,7 $
24h-Volumen91,5 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

1J
Manifold Markets
Ja
51%
Manifold Markets
Nein
49%
Community-Prognose29 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen1241,6 $
24h-Volumen215,4 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

18T
Ja
Ja
2%
Nein
Nein
98%
49 • Niedrige QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen120.339,5 $
24h-Volumen0 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

9Mon
Ja
Ja
10%
Nein
Nein
91%
40 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen95.203,6 $
24h-Volumen0 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Megaquake by June 30?

Megaquake by June 30?

1.0%18T
Ja
Ja
+0.0%8%
Nein
Nein
-0.0%92%
44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen78.489,4 $
24h-Volumen2,4 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.2%6Mon
Ja
Ja
+0.2%3%
Nein
Nein
97%
60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen13.853,5 $
24h-Volumen38,4 $
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST

9T
Manifold Markets
Ja
52.9%
Manifold Markets
Nein
47.1%
Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen866,4 $
24h-Volumen308,5 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Natural Disaster in 2026?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

0.5%6Mon
Ja
Ja
+0.0%25%
Nein
Nein
76%
28 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen222.642,1 $
24h-Volumen32,1 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%6Mon
Uganda
Uganda
+37.5%100%
Kenya
Kenya
+19.5%78%
South Sudan
South Sudan
+2.5%67%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen14.856,8 $
24h-Volumen69,4 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2028?

2J
Manifold Markets
Ja
30%
Manifold Markets
Nein
70%
Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen2749 $
24h-Volumen109 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

1Mon
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
55.7%
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
58.3%
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
60%

+28 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose76 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
Gesamtvolumen8867,5 $
24h-Volumen21,7 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

6Mon
Manifold Markets
March 2026
0.4%
Manifold Markets
April 2026
0.4%
Manifold Markets
May 2026
0.4%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
Gesamtvolumen1137,3 $
24h-Volumen118,4 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

23J
Manifold Markets
2026
0%
Manifold Markets
2027
20.7%
Manifold Markets
2028
51.2%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose31 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
Gesamtvolumen5943,2 $
24h-Volumen87 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

2.9%6Mon
Ja
Ja
-2.9%15%
Nein
Nein
85%
71 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen6170,6 $
24h-Volumen37,9 $
KalshiKALSHI
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

3.0%6Mon
Ja
Ja
+0.0%16%
Nein
Nein
-0.0%85%
44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen8334,8 $
24h-Volumen1,1 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

2.5%6Mon
Ja
Ja
-0.0%8%
Nein
Nein
+0.0%92%
24 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen12.338,8 $
24h-Volumen0 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

6Mon
Ja
Ja
82%
Nein
Nein
19%
49 • Niedrige QualitätEnger SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen5508,1 $
24h-Volumen12,2 $
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

7Mon
Manifold Markets
Ja
74.8%
Manifold Markets
Nein
25.2%
Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen2108,5 $
24h-Volumen57 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

2.0%6Mon
Kenya
Kenya
+2.0%55%
Republic of the Congo
Republic of the Congo
-5.0%10%
United States
United States
23%

+14 weitere Ergebnisse

28 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen2338,2 $
24h-Volumen14,5 $
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

4J
Manifold Markets
Ja
81.3%
Manifold Markets
Nein
18.7%
Community-Prognose24 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen1484,9 $
24h-Volumen50 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

2.0%6Mon
Ja
Ja
+2.0%7%
Nein
Nein
93%
28 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen1929,9 $
24h-Volumen10 $
KalshiKALSHI
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

5.0%1Mon
Antares Nuclear
Antares Nuclear
+5.0%97%
Atomic Alchemy
Atomic Alchemy
-18.0%50%
Radiant Industries
Radiant Industries
10%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

49 • Niedrige QualitätEnger SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt
Gesamtvolumen2185 $
24h-Volumen1,9 $
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

6J
Manifold Markets
Ja
33%
Manifold Markets
Nein
67%
Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen656,6 $
24h-Volumen71,6 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?

6Mon
Manifold Markets
Ja
13%
Manifold Markets
Nein
87%
Community-Prognose23 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen7002,6 $
24h-Volumen75 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?

1J
Manifold Markets
Ja
42%
Manifold Markets
Nein
58%
Community-Prognose23 PrognostikerTyp: binary
Gesamtvolumen5028 $
24h-Volumen61,9 $
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS