Science | Prognosemärkte

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

5Mon

Before Jan 20, 2029

24%

Before 2028

17%

Before 2027

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen33,3 Mio. $

24h-Volumen41.784,6 $

KALSHI

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

5Mon

December 31

September 30

-0.1%3%

April 30

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen63,6 Mio. $

24h-Volumen25.206,1 $

POLYMARKET

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

1.1%5Mon

Nein

66%

+1.1%34%

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen213.565,6 $

24h-Volumen12.194 $

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

1.0%5Mon

Nein

94%

-1.0%6%

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen314.292,2 $

24h-Volumen2645 $

KALSHI

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%5Mon

Uganda

99%

South Sudan

+1.0%54%

Burundi

+1.0%30%

+14 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzUganda99%· ±1 Pkt.

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen325.708,2 $

24h-Volumen2728,3 $

KALSHI

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

1.0%5T

Aalo Atomics

99%

Antares Nuclear

96%

Valar Atomics

94%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen305.872,9 $

24h-Volumen1479,5 $

KALSHI

Total space launches in July

9.0%12T

Above 13

+1.0%94%

Above 14

-9.0%16%

Above 15

-1.0%2%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen70.477,6 $

24h-Volumen13.433,3 $

KALSHI

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Nein

74.3%

25.7%

Community-Prognose138 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

0.5%5Mon

-1.0%55%

+0.5%42%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen3,2 Mio. $

24h-Volumen550 $

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

12.0%5T

Above 100

+1.0%99%

Above 25

99%

Above 50

99%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen56.320,5 $

24h-Volumen1335,9 $

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.3%5Mon

Nein

96%

-0.3%4%

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1,6 Mio. $

24h-Volumen209 $

KALSHI

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

0.7%5Mon

Nein

89%

-0.7%11%

CoinRithm-Referenz11%· ±8 Pkt.

72 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen697.620,3 $

24h-Volumen158 $

KALSHI

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

11.4%12Std

+23.0%49%

+23.6%38%

+1.0%18%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen24.135,1 $

24h-Volumen4201,3 $

POLYMARKET

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

13J

Nein

75%

25%

Community-Prognose2.217 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

Nein

94%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

5Mon

Nein

90.3%

9.7%

Community-Prognose18 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

12.5%12Std

+12.5%90%

-10.5%11%

-2.3%1%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

79 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen7249,4 $

24h-Volumen1880,5 $

POLYMARKET

Is Earth flat?

5Mon

Nein

98%

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen51.714,4 $

24h-Volumen101,1 $

POLYMARKET

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

1.0%4Mon

Above 0

+1.0%81%

Above 1

-5.0%65%

Above 2

-1.0%41%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen56.308,8 $

24h-Volumen581,1 $

KALSHI

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

5Mon

Nein

93.8%

6.2%

Community-Prognose57 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

1.0%6J

Oil

-1.0%62%

Coal

13%

Gas

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

72 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen131.815,3 $

24h-Volumen188,7 $

KALSHI

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

5Mon

Nein

99%

Community-Prognose28 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

96%

Nein

Community-Prognose999 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 200 years old?

175J

Nein

88.1%

11.9%

Community-Prognose75 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

3.0%5Mon

Above 0

-5.0%25%

Above 1

13%

Above 2

13%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen115.068,8 $

24h-Volumen118,7 $

KALSHI

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

2.5%5Mon

Uganda

+37.5%100%

South Sudan

+1.5%63%

Ethiopia

53%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzUganda99%· ±1 Pkt.

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen29.707,3 $

24h-Volumen1511,1 $

POLYMARKET

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Nein

81.7%

18.3%

Community-Prognose73 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Gauss

-1.8%58.7%

Archimedes

+1.5%21.7%

Euler

+0.1%4.8%

+50 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose191 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

5.0%5Mon

Nein

69%

-5.0%31%

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen16.086,3 $

24h-Volumen1783,7 $

KALSHI

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

23J

2027

99.4%

2028

99%

2029

99%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose38 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

24J

Nein

61.9%

38.1%

Community-Prognose26 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Nein

58%

42%

Community-Prognose88 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

7Mon

Nein

99%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Natural Disaster in 2026?

6.0%5Mon

Nein

+0.1%78%

-0.1%22%

36 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen227.959,3 $

24h-Volumen795,2 $

POLYMARKET

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

8Mon

Nein

95.4%

4.6%

Community-Prognose56 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Nein

66.5%

33.5%

Community-Prognose34 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

5Mon

Nein

94.8%

5.2%

Community-Prognose23 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

5Mon

Nein

99%

Community-Prognose141 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

Nein

91.2%

8.8%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

5Mon

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

94.6%

London, England, UK

94.5%

San Francisco, California, US

94.5%

+11 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

54.5%

Nein

45.5%

Community-Prognose249 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Nein

61.7%

38.3%

Community-Prognose242 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

165J

Nein

88%

12%

Community-Prognose127 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

73J

Nein

83.7%

16.3%

Community-Prognose48 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

90.2%

Nein

9.8%

Community-Prognose22 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

13J

Nein

62.5%

37.5%

Community-Prognose92 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

18J

50.3%

Nein

49.7%

Community-Prognose471 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

Nein

90%

10%

Community-Prognose95 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Wissenschaft

Zugehörige Krypto-Assets

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Total space launches in July

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

Is Earth flat?

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will I live to be 200 years old?

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?

Will Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?

NASA confirms aliens before 2027?

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?