Science | Prognosemärkte

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

3.0%6Mon

December 31

-3.0%11%

September 30

June 30

-0.1%1%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen52,2 Mio. $

24h-Volumen1,4 Mio. $

POLYMARKET

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

6Mon

20.8%

Nein

79.2%

Community-Prognose149 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen187.645,5 $

24h-Volumen3786,8 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3.0%6Mon

+1.5%63%

-3.0%28%

+0.1%5%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen2,9 Mio. $

24h-Volumen3956,3 $

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

0.3%6Mon

Before 2027

+0.3%14%

Before July 2026

-1.0%1%

Before Jan 20, 2029

27%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen257.378,1 $

24h-Volumen1205 $

KALSHI

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.3%6Mon

Nein

95%

68 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen635.922 $

24h-Volumen2972,9 $

POLYMARKET

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

0.3%6Mon

11–13

+2.0%36%

14–16

+0.5%36%

17–19

-2.0%17%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen1,3 Mio. $

24h-Volumen590,2 $

POLYMARKET

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

1.3%18T

≤8

+2.5%49%

-5.0%25%

15%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen105.984,4 $

24h-Volumen747,4 $

POLYMARKET

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

1Mon

80%

Nein

20%

Community-Prognose402 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen206.320,3 $

24h-Volumen342,8 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

57.7%

Nein

42.3%

Community-Prognose689 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen659.992,3 $

24h-Volumen193,2 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

6Mon

🇨🇦 Canada

23.9%

🇬🇱 Greenland

15.3%

🇮🇸 Iceland

15.3%

+11 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen2533,3 $

24h-Volumen1223,3 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1.2%18T

2nd hottest

+2.0%86%

3rd hottest

+0.6%8%

1st hottest

-1.2%6%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen38.390,5 $

24h-Volumen234,8 $

POLYMARKET

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

1.4%3Mon

<4m

+4.0%50%

4.0-4.2m

+1.4%27%

4.2-4.4m

-0.5%13%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen54.188,8 $

24h-Volumen109,8 $

POLYMARKET

Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?

0.1%18T

Nein

98%

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen30.993,9 $

24h-Volumen128,9 $

POLYMARKET

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

19T

432 or less

0.4%

432.0001-432.25

0.4%

432.2501-432.5

95.2%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose6 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen10.552,6 $

24h-Volumen980 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

6Mon

96.1%

Nein

3.9%

Community-Prognose10 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen6471,2 $

24h-Volumen500 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I make IMO in 2028

39.5%

Nein

60.5%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen1337,3 $

24h-Volumen303,7 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

96%

Nein

Community-Prognose996 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen10,3 Mio. $

24h-Volumen90 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

0.5%6Mon

+0.0%6%

Nein

94%

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen119.637,1 $

24h-Volumen15,7 $

POLYMARKET

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

41.9%

Nein

58.1%

Community-Prognose85 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen22.312,9 $

24h-Volumen105 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

53.4%

Nein

46.6%

Community-Prognose50 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen13.118,5 $

24h-Volumen104,7 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1%9Mon

+2.0%67%

21%

+0.3%5%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen1,1 Mio. $

24h-Volumen2,1 $

POLYMARKET

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

0.5%1Mon

Hong Wang

-0.5%83%

John Pardon

+0.5%65%

Jacob Tsimerman

-4.5%62%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

71 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen532.524,3 $

24h-Volumen65,3 $

POLYMARKET

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

10Mon

20.2%

Nein

79.8%

Community-Prognose32 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen3362,7 $

24h-Volumen200 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.1%6Mon

Nein

94%

60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen224.938,7 $

24h-Volumen91,5 $

POLYMARKET

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

51%

Nein

49%

Community-Prognose29 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen1241,6 $

24h-Volumen215,4 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

18T

Nein

98%

49 • Niedrige QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen120.339,5 $

24h-Volumen0 $

POLYMARKET

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

9Mon

10%

Nein

91%

40 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen95.203,6 $

24h-Volumen0 $

POLYMARKET

Megaquake by June 30?

1.0%18T

+0.0%8%

Nein

-0.0%92%

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen78.489,4 $

24h-Volumen2,4 $

POLYMARKET

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.2%6Mon

+0.2%3%

Nein

97%

60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen13.853,5 $

24h-Volumen38,4 $

KALSHI

Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST

52.9%

Nein

47.1%

Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen866,4 $

24h-Volumen308,5 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Natural Disaster in 2026?

0.5%6Mon

+0.0%25%

Nein

76%

28 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen222.642,1 $

24h-Volumen32,1 $

POLYMARKET

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%6Mon

Uganda

+37.5%100%

Kenya

+19.5%78%

South Sudan

+2.5%67%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen14.856,8 $

24h-Volumen69,4 $

POLYMARKET

Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2028?

30%

Nein

70%

Community-Prognose3 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen2749 $

24h-Volumen109 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

1Mon

At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze

55.7%

At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver

58.3%

At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold

60%

+28 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose76 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen8867,5 $

24h-Volumen21,7 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

6Mon

March 2026

0.4%

April 2026

0.4%

May 2026

0.4%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen1137,3 $

24h-Volumen118,4 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

23J

2026

2027

20.7%

2028

51.2%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose31 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen5943,2 $

24h-Volumen87 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

2.9%6Mon

-2.9%15%

Nein

85%

71 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen6170,6 $

24h-Volumen37,9 $

KALSHI

Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

3.0%6Mon

+0.0%16%

Nein

-0.0%85%

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen8334,8 $

24h-Volumen1,1 $

POLYMARKET

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

2.5%6Mon

-0.0%8%

Nein

+0.0%92%

24 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen12.338,8 $

24h-Volumen0 $

POLYMARKET

$AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?$

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

6Mon

$Ja$

82%

$Nein$

Nein

19%

49 • Niedrige QualitätEnger SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen5508,1 $

24h-Volumen12,2 $

POLYMARKET

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

7Mon

74.8%

Nein

25.2%

Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen2108,5 $

24h-Volumen57 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

2.0%6Mon

Kenya

+2.0%55%

Republic of the Congo

-5.0%10%

United States

23%

+14 weitere Ergebnisse

28 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen2338,2 $

24h-Volumen14,5 $

KALSHI

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

81.3%

Nein

18.7%

Community-Prognose24 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen1484,9 $

24h-Volumen50 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

2.0%6Mon

+2.0%7%

Nein

93%

28 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen1929,9 $

24h-Volumen10 $

KALSHI

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

5.0%1Mon

Antares Nuclear

+5.0%97%

Atomic Alchemy

-18.0%50%

Radiant Industries

10%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

49 • Niedrige QualitätEnger SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätDünner Markt

Gesamtvolumen2185 $

24h-Volumen1,9 $

KALSHI

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

33%

Nein

67%

Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen656,6 $

24h-Volumen71,6 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?

6Mon

13%

Nein

87%

Community-Prognose23 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen7002,6 $

24h-Volumen75 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?

42%

Nein

58%

Community-Prognose23 PrognostikerTyp: binary

Gesamtvolumen5028 $

24h-Volumen61,9 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Wissenschaft

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?

2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30?

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

Will I make IMO in 2028

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Megaquake by June 30?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Will I receive a score on the TSTST high enough to qualify for the TST

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2028?

What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?