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  3. Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3.5% (24h)One-OffWissenschaftWeather6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
2
2 63%+1.5%
Führend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat

80 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

3445,2 €

Liquidität

64.822,3 €

Hohe Liquidität
Geld / Brief

27.0% / 29.0%

Spread

7.4%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

-0.5%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten

12. Nov. 25, 22:5431. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
5
5
0%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

263%

Regeln

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Polymarket
  • Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
  • If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
  • This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
  • If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

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Regeln

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Polymarket
  • Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
  • If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
  • This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
  • If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.