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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wissenschaft
  3. Natural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

0.5% (24h)One-OffWissenschaftWeather6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 25%+0.0%
Marktqualitat

44 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

37,4 €

Liquidität

1624,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

24.0% / 25.0%

Spread

4.2%

Mittlerer Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten

31. Dez. 25, 19:1731. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes25%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

Polymarket
  • - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
  • The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Verwandte Märkte

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

3622,3 €
2: 63%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026

848,8 €
432 or less: 0.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

When will El Niño conditions be declared present?

1,2 €
Before Jul 1, 2026: 70%KalshiKALSHI
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?

0,3 €
At least 440: 89%KalshiKALSHI
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

0,1 €
Ja: 77%KalshiKALSHI
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

0 €
Ja: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,837.73+2.22%EthereumETH$1,657.40+1.61%SolanaSOL$65.25+1.53%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.37%XRPXRP$1.12+0.52%BNBBNB$596.39+1.77%

Verwandte Nachrichten

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

Polymarket
  • - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
  • The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf