Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
KITechnikWissenschaftYearly23JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2026 0%Führend unter 15 Optionen
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The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures
- If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
- The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
- It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
- If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
- If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.