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  1. Prognosemärkte
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  3. How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

TechnikWissenschaftYearly6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
At least 25
At least 25 91%
Führend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat

40 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

34,6 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

89.0% / 92.0%

Spread

3.4%

Mittlerer Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

13. Mai 26, 22:001. Jan. 27, 4:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

At least 2591%

Regeln

If at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Only unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives.
  • If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.
  • Cumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased.
  • Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.
  • The implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 25.

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Regeln

If at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Only unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives.
  • If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person.
  • Cumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased.
  • Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count.
  • The implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 25.