Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Anthropic 63%+0.5%Führend unter 26 Optionen
Marktqualitat
64 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
2690,5 €
Liquidität
517.474 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
2.5% / 4.4%
Spread
76.0%
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
-1.3%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 22 Minuten
4. Juni 26, 17:4131. Dez. 26, 0:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Anthropic63%
Plattformen vergleichen· Anthropic
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Mittel | 63% | 0pt | 2690,5 € | 517.474 € | vor 22 Minuten | |
 Futuur90% Übereinstimmung · auto | Niedrig | 67% | +4pt | 0 € | 13.860,4 € | vor 22 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Futuur
Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
5Mon
67%
17%
10%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
44 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen241,3 €
24h-Volumen0 €
FUTUURRegeln
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$3.1k2. Juli25T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
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KALSHI
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MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
4594,4 €↑$1.1T: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETAnthropic acquired by Apple before 2030?
1772 €Ja: 2.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
1332,5 €Ja: 5.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which company has second best AI model end of July?
1109,3 €Anthropic: 98%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.