KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitZohran Mamdani 28%+2.0%Führend unter 25 Optionen
Marktqualitat
89 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
20.021,4 €
Liquidität
325.340,8 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
27.0% / 28.0%
Spread
3.7%
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Minuten
19. Feb. 26, 20:001. Jan. 27, 4:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Zohran Mamdani28%
Plattformen vergleichen· Zohran Mamdani
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Hoch | 28% | 0pt | 20.021,4 € | 325.340,8 € | vor 17 Minuten | |
 Polymarket71% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Hoch | 30% | +2pt | 666 € | 204.147,7 € | vor 17 Minuten | Öffnen → |
 Manifold Markets88% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | — | 13% | -15pt | — | — | vor 17 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
5Mon
-0.8%30.9%
-0.1%13%
+0.9%12.9%
+46 weitere Ergebnisse
Community-Prognose207 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket
TIME Person of the Year 2026
7.5%5Mon
+7.5%30%
-3.0%20%
+3.5%17%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen3587 €
24h-Volumen666 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Taylor Swift is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning).
- Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”.
- Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$22.8k2. Juli25T Daten26. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
2403,4 €Anthropic: 20%KALSHI
KALSHI2028 Presidency: Vance, Newsom, or Other?
28,9 €Vance (R) defeats Newsom (D): 5.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
26 €Trump bans abortion nationwide: 3.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Avengers: Doomsday: Cast
12.088,4 €Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool?: 91%KALSHI
KALSHI
The Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
6731,9 €Pragmata: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
Eurovision 2027 City
854,7 €Sofia: 90%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETIn diesen Themen aktiv
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If Taylor Swift is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning).
- Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”.
- Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005.