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ZurÃ¼ck zu PrognosemÃ¤rkten

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Manifold MarketsKein KYC

Alarme

Folge diesem Markt, um Alarme zu erstellen.

Prognosekontext

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Trump bans abortion nationwide 5.7%

Prognostiker

1,616

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden

Veraltet

Zuletzt aktualisiert: 12. Apr., 21:46

Auflosung

21.01.2029, 04:59

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

7d-Ã„nderung

Start 06.11.2024, 17:48Ende 21.01.2029, 04:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Trump bans abortion nationwide

-5.7%

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

-11%

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

-1.6%

Trump extends his term past 4 years

-14%

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

-12.8%

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

-2%

Trump dies

-15.9%

Fair elections in 2028

-79.9%

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

-100%

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

-100%

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

-66.8%

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

-26%

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

-47.3%

A major war in Asia occurs

-100%

Another pandemic

-29%

Second Muslim ban

-100%

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

-68%

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

-100%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

-80.2%

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

-28.4%

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

-33.8%

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

-100%

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

-100%

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

-32.5%

Laura Loomer gets any government role

-15.9%

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

-19.6%

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

-16%

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

-64%

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

-100%

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

-14.1%

The department of education gets desolved

-25.3%

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

-100%

Trump gets shot

-18.2%

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

-22%

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

-12.4%

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

-13.2%

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

-44.9%

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

-70%

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

-56.6%

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

-100%

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

-100%

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

-99%

"The New Norm" ends

-89%

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

-28.3%

Trump runs for a third term

-17.8%

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

-100%

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

-8.5%

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

-83.3%

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

-100%

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

-87.6%

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

-3.9%

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

-75%

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

-43%

A national ban on gender-affirming care

-7.5%

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

-50%

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

-13.9%

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

-71.8%

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

-100%

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

-89%

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

-5%

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

-53%

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

-77.3%

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

-8%

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

-69.6%

south park is canceled/discontinued

-13.2%

New

-50%

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

-29.5%

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

-84.3%

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

-9.3%

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

-34.9%

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

-100%

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

-64%

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

-6.1%

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

-3.6%

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

-38.1%

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

-78%

Approval < 35%

-74.4%

Approval < 25%

-17.6%

Jimmy Carter dies

-0%

Joe Biden dies

-33.3%

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

-37.4%

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

-58%

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

-7.1%

Vances have another kid

-67.6%

Starship lands on Mars

-6.2%

Trump announces he is tired of winning

-18.4%

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

-1%

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

-62%

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

-100%

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

-1.6%

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

-23.6%

55 or more Republican senate seats

-15.2%

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

-33.5%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

-31.6%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

-86.9%

Record level unemployment

-14%

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

-29.4%

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

-41%

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

-84%

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

-34%

54 or more Republican senate seats

-14%

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

-75%

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

-100%

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

-100%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

-81.3%

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

-100%

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

-100%

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

-73%

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

-18.1%

USA experiences a recession.

-66.4%

Government shutdown

-100%

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

-72%

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

-49.2%

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

-26.9%

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

-5.4%

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

-5.1%

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

-58.9%

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

-44.7%

Repeal obamacare

-23.8%

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

-40%

American Manned Lunar Landing

-18%

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

-15.6%

Trump gets covid (again)

-19.3%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

-21.2%

"covfefe" posted again

-8%

trump gets hospitalized

-69%

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

-45%

Congress overrides a presidential veto

-39.3%

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

-63.8%

A new supreme court justice appointed

-78%

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

-24.7%

Trump is assassinated

-10%

Trump says a racial slur

-36.3%

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

-49.2%

Trump visits Africa

-39.7%

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

-5.6%

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

-100%

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

-68.6%

Trump loses the fake tan

-17%

Trump declassifies JFK files

-100%

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

-87.1%

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

-5.3%

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

-26.6%

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

-7%

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

-70.4%

McDonald's reopens in Russia

-41%

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

-43.8%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

-5.5%

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

-44.1%

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

-4.7%

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

-15.7%

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

-65%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

-26%

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

-33.5%

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

-39.3%

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

-18.8%

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

-70.8%

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

-57.6%

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

-78.7%

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

-47.2%

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

-93.9%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

-0%

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

-86.8%

Constitutional Amendment

-4.6%

Constitutional Amendment

-24.6%

Cannabis is federally legalized

-10.6%

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

-78%

Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat

-0%

10% fewer government agencies

-47.2%

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

-30.6%

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

-24.5%

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

-31.4%

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

-51.2%

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

-14.2%

Trump and Obama shake hands

-42.6%

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

-89.9%

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

-52%

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

-6.4%

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

-44%

Anthony Fauci is indicted

-16.9%

Anthony Fauci is convicted

-2.3%

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

-6.1%

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

-15.3%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

-1%

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

-12.2%

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

-11%

JD Vance elected President

-20.9%

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

-4.9%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

-86.1%

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

-20%

US national bitcoin reserve created

-34%

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

-10.1%

The US leaves the World Health Organization

-100%

New national park created

-31%

A hurricane will be nuked

-1%

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

-28.9%

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

-66.5%

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

-10.5%

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

-60%

US Invasion of any North/South American country

-68.5%

New US national anthem

-2.1%

Ann Selzer arrested

-2.4%

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

-2.5%

BTC falls below $38,000

-30.7%

Dow rises above 65,000

-31.2%

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

-36.1%

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

-4.2%

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

-41.9%

Trump is seen shirtless

-12%

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

-7.9%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

-21.2%

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

-4.4%

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

-95.7%

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

-6.9%

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

-16.5%

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

-7.2%

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

-7.5%

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

-34%

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

-70.6%

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

-5.7%

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

-16.9%

Trump and Melania divorce

-10%

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

-65%

John Bolton indicted

-100%

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

-36%

New James Bond actor is presented

-94%

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

-33%

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

-100%

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

-100%

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

-14.7%

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

-10%

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

-64%

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

-16.5%

Tesla

-34.2%

SpaceX is nationalized

-10%

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

-13.2%

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

-40.8%

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

-40%

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

-24.4%

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

-44.8%

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

-23.1%

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

-13.1%

War is declared against another nation

-46%

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

-67%

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

-54.5%

NATO invokes Article 5

-24.2%

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

-61%

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

-100%

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

-11.8%

Regeln

Add your own answers!

Unless otherwise specified:
"Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)
"Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.
If something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option "Trump gets COVID" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened.
"Trump's Second Term" is the time between Jan 20 2025 and Jan 20 2029, so long as the US continues to exist and Republicans remain in power in the White House. Trump dying doesn't end Trump's Second Term for the purposes of this market.

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