AI | Prognosemärkte

Which company has best AI model end of June?

17T

Anthropic

+3.4%89%

Google

-1.0%10%

OpenAI

-0.4%3%

+16 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen13,5 Mio. $

24h-Volumen189.683,7 $

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

1.0%6Mon

↑$1.0T

+2.4%100%

↑$1.1T

+1.3%96%

↑$1.25T

+1.0%90%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1,5 Mio. $

24h-Volumen107.115,5 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

17T

Anthropic

-1.5%91%

Google

OpenAI

+0.3%2%

+16 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1,7 Mio. $

24h-Volumen20.283,1 $

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO by...?

0.3%6Mon

December

+4.5%49%

September 30,

+1.0%12%

August

+1.9%5%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen2 Mio. $

24h-Volumen18.622,8 $

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

17T

No IPO by June 30, 2026

99%

<100B

100–200B

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1,7 Mio. $

24h-Volumen5141,7 $

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by __?

December 31,

90%

October 31,

69%

September 30,

16%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen272.303,9 $

24h-Volumen6335,9 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

1Mon

Anthropic

81%

Google

-0.3%9%

OpenAI

-0.2%7%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen93.206,6 $

24h-Volumen6231,2 $

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 released by...?

2.7%1Mon

July 31

-1.1%96%

June 30

+3.0%92%

June 23

-2.0%54%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen889.196,5 $

24h-Volumen19.049,8 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

0.3%17T

Anthropic

-0.1%96%

OpenAI

-0.1%3%

xAI

+0.3%1%

+26 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen65.770 $

24h-Volumen7144,9 $

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

6.0%6Mon

No IPO by December 31, 2026

-6.0%51%

750B–1T

-0.1%13%

1T–1.25T

+1.6%12%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen1,8 Mio. $

24h-Volumen5647,3 $

POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

4.0%6Mon

+0.0%8%

Nein

-0.0%92%

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1 Mio. $

24h-Volumen12.564,8 $

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

15.5%6Mon

↑$900B

89%

↑$1.0T

+1.0%81%

↑$1.25T

+10.0%79%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen623.497,7 $

24h-Volumen9549,1 $

POLYMARKET

Best AI model on June 13?

7.1%4Std

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

+7.1%88%

Other

-9.4%9%

claude-opus-4-6

-0.1%0%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen158.938,1 $

24h-Volumen28.543,2 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

17T

Anthropic

-1.0%87%

Google

+4.5%11%

OpenAI

+0.7%3%

+16 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen596.408,5 $

24h-Volumen4196,7 $

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

0.7%1J

600B+

+1.5%95%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

300–400B

+0.3%1%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen356.931,8 $

24h-Volumen2793,8 $

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

4.0%17T

June 23

+7.5%27%

No release by June 30

-0.3%18%

June 30

14%

+27 weitere Ergebnisse

77 • Hohe QualitätSpread unbekanntHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen109.178,4 $

24h-Volumen5634,4 $

POLYMARKET

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

7.0%15T

June 22–June 28

-0.4%56%

June 15–June 21

+7.0%30%

Not released by June 28

-6.1%12%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen148.843,9 $

24h-Volumen5856,1 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

1.5%17T

Anthropic

+1.5%89%

Google

OpenAI

-0.9%2%

+26 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen97.977,8 $

24h-Volumen4347,6 $

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

3.7%17T

Alibaba

-3.0%80%

Z.ai

+2.0%18%

Moonshot

+3.7%5%

+22 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen40.771 $

24h-Volumen6681,2 $

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

5.5%1J

$2.5–$2.75T

-0.5%16%

$1.25–$1.5T

-0.5%16%

<$1.25T

+5.5%14%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen19.330,7 $

24h-Volumen10.690,8 $

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

0.1%17T

Anthropic

+77.0%100%

OpenAI

+1.8%5%

DeepSeek

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1,6 Mio. $

24h-Volumen1661,7 $

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

4.0%18T

↑ $925B

+9.9%100%

↑ $1.0T

+12.6%100%

↑ $975B

+1.3%100%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen377.792,2 $

24h-Volumen3772,4 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

0.3%17T

Google

-7.0%49%

Anthropic

+2.0%29%

OpenAI

+3.0%17%

+26 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen202.338,4 $

24h-Volumen3646,4 $

POLYMARKET

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

6Mon

<30%

0.9%

30-40%

0.9%

40-50%

0.9%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose38 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen94.479,4 $

24h-Volumen44.401,8 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

5.0%18T

↑$850B

-14.5%39%

↓$800B

+1.3%31%

↑$875B

-4.0%20%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen197.838 $

24h-Volumen1535,2 $

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

1.1%1J

1.8T+

-0.5%48%

1.2–1.5T

-0.5%18%

1.5–1.8T

-0.1%18%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen147.746,1 $

24h-Volumen1124,5 $

POLYMARKET

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

19T

Perplexity

3.4%

Anthropic

1.1%

Mistral

2.9%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose48 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen151.886,8 $

24h-Volumen1274,9 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

3.7%6Mon

+0.0%98%

Nein

-0.0%2%

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen63.805,4 $

24h-Volumen4393,3 $

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

2.0%1Mon

July 31

-1.4%95%

June 30

84%

June 26

+0.5%68%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

61 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen51.096,4 $

24h-Volumen6797,5 $

POLYMARKET

AI bubble burst by...?

3.0%6Mon

2026

-3.0%22%

2025

+0.1%0%

March 31, 2026

-0.1%0%

68 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen2,9 Mio. $

24h-Volumen1977,4 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

1.5%1Mon

Anthropic

-1.5%65%

Google

+7.0%20%

OpenAI

-3.0%7%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen7582,7 $

24h-Volumen4753,2 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

10.0%1Mon

Anthropic

-10.0%66%

Google

+12.0%22%

OpenAI

+2.0%6%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen8771,2 $

24h-Volumen3149,3 $

POLYMARKET

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Trump bans abortion nationwide

4.4%

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

11%

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

1.6%

+248 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose1,631 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen1 Mio. $

24h-Volumen479,2 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

5.0%17T

30%+

+0.7%100%

35%+

+2.6%100%

45%+

-6.5%58%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen342.571,4 $

24h-Volumen2285,4 $

POLYMARKET

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

6Mon

ARC-AGI

13%

FrontierMath

5.7%

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

48.1%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose6 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen9599,2 $

24h-Volumen6500 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

0.7%17T

June 30

+0.7%92%

June 19

-4.0%18%

June 12

-1.6%2%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

79 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen301.939,9 $

24h-Volumen2115,5 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

6Mon

Anthropic

67%

Google

+2.0%18%

OpenAI

-1.0%10%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen7744,5 $

24h-Volumen812,2 $

POLYMARKET

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

6Mon

Earbuds/Headphones

+2.5%32%

Clip-on device for clothing

+0.5%21%

Glasses

19%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

68 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen308.026,6 $

24h-Volumen1220,8 $

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

6.0%1J

Anthropic

-0.1%76%

OpenAI

+0.1%24%

79 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen158.272,2 $

24h-Volumen4936,4 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

0.5%1Mon

Anthropic

+0.5%78%

Google

-3.0%7%

OpenAI

+0.5%6%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen6487,2 $

24h-Volumen1376,2 $

POLYMARKET

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

19T

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

100%

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

100%

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

6.7%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose592 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen364.166 $

24h-Volumen350 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Kill everyone - Liron

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

8.8%

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

34.5%

+36 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose301 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen72.031 $

24h-Volumen25.040,7 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

1.7%6Mon

None in 2026

-1.0%70%

Anthropic

-2.0%21%

OpenAI

+1.7%6%

+29 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen78.205,8 $

24h-Volumen436,6 $

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

2.5%17T

Anthropic

+0.5%86%

Google

-2.5%9%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

1.1%6Mon

ChatGPT

-1.1%15%

Claude

-0.6%67%

Gemini

-3.1%12%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen54.076 $

24h-Volumen500,8 $

KALSHI

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

11.4%

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

100%

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

45.3%

+148 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose187 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

Gesamtvolumen72.999,3 $

24h-Volumen351,6 $

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

6Mon

Google

56%

OpenAI

35%

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

12.0%6Mon

Anthropic

-0.1%61%

OpenAI

+0.1%39%

68 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen27.328,4 $

24h-Volumen2237,9 $

POLYMARKET

KI

Zugehörige Krypto-Assets

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

OpenAI IPO by...?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Anthropic IPO by __?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Best AI model on June 13?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Best AI at the end of 2026?

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?