Regulation | Prognosemärkte

Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

1Mon

Before Jan 1, 2028

+1.0%66%

Before Oct 1, 2027

-1.0%61%

Before Apr 1, 2027

+1.0%53%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen3 Mio. $

24h-Volumen38.538 $

KALSHI

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

5.0%5Mon

Nein

-0.1%63%

+0.1%38%

CoinRithm-Referenz38%· ±3 Pkt.

100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen2,7 Mio. $

24h-Volumen91.100,8 $

POLYMARKET

Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?

3.0%11Mon

Paramount

+3.0%69%

None before July 2027

-4.0%27%

Netflix

-1.0%3%

CoinRithm-ReferenzParamount67%· ±2 Pkt.

100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen4 Mio. $

24h-Volumen7485,7 $

KALSHI

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

Before Jan 20, 2029

75%

Before 2028

66%

Before 2027

-1.0%22%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen2,4 Mio. $

24h-Volumen9563,5 $

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

2.0%1Mon

Before Apr 1, 2027

83%

Before Mar 1, 2027

81%

Before Jan 1, 2027

+7.0%72%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen1 Mio. $

24h-Volumen8496,5 $

KALSHI

Anthropic IPO by __?

11Mon

December 31,

+0.5%72%

October 31,

+19.5%64%

September 30,

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen790.443,6 $

24h-Volumen18.526,2 $

POLYMARKET

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

18.0%9Mon

Before 2028

+8.0%68%

Before May 1, 2027

+18.0%43%

Before Mar 1, 2027

+16.0%35%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen413.168,7 $

24h-Volumen6318,3 $

KALSHI

Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?

10.0%5Mon

Jersey Mike's

+2.0%99%

SpaceX

99%

Shein

86%

+26 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen2,1 Mio. $

24h-Volumen2273,4 $

KALSHI

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?

2.5%5Mon

-0.3%99%

1.5T

+1.0%96%

+2.5%89%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen88.450,6 $

24h-Volumen21.824,1 $

POLYMARKET

Love Island UK S13: Top 3 couples

1.0%1Mon

Jasmine and Kavan

+1.0%98%

Angelista and Simba

+2.0%98%

Julia and Lorenzo

-1.0%97%

+97 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen152.330,4 $

24h-Volumen5958,4 $

KALSHI

Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?

15.0%13T

+15.0%55%

Nein

45%

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen83.571,7 $

24h-Volumen12.562,3 $

KALSHI

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap

0.3%5Mon

400B+ yuan

+0.3%99%

<250B yuan

250–280B yuan

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen70.220,3 $

24h-Volumen3333 $

POLYMARKET

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

Before Jun 1, 2027

67%

Before May 1, 2027

56%

Before Apr 1, 2027

48%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

60 • Mittlere QualitätSpread unbekanntHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen1,1 Mio. $

24h-Volumen149,5 $

KALSHI

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

5Mon

Nein

97.9%

2.1%

Community-Prognose26 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

0.1%5Mon

JPMorgan Chase

-1.8%4%

Deutsche Bank

RBC

-0.1%4%

+16 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen68.715,7 $

24h-Volumen485,7 $

POLYMARKET

When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?

8Mon

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Jun 30, 2027

Before May 1, 2027

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen461.903,5 $

24h-Volumen151,4 $

KALSHI

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Nein

86.8%

13.2%

Community-Prognose68 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?

4.0%5Mon

At least 2

-1.0%34%

At least 4

+6.0%20%

At least 3

-4.0%18%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen15.102,8 $

24h-Volumen4348,7 $

KALSHI

Conference to Win the National Championship

1.0%7Mon

SEC

+1.0%39%

Big Ten

+1.0%39%

Any Other Conference/Independent

12%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen39.117,5 $

24h-Volumen423,3 $

KALSHI

Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?

6.0%5Mon

Citigroup

23%

Bank of America

18%

JPMorgan Chase

16%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätSpread unbekanntMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen123.211,2 $

24h-Volumen293 $

KALSHI

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

5Mon

Nein

61%

39%

Community-Prognose70 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

1.0%5Mon

Nein

+0.0%93%

-0.0%8%

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen52.141,1 $

24h-Volumen392,7 $

POLYMARKET

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

5Mon

Nein

91%

Community-Prognose19 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

4.0%5Mon

Above 55

45%

Above 50

-4.0%44%

Above 58

-6.0%38%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen13.887,1 $

24h-Volumen440,7 $

KALSHI

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Nein

87%

13%

Community-Prognose55 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?

Other

+0.4%12%

2032

+0.4%8.4%

2031

+0.4%7.9%

+15 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose36 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

5Mon

Other

69.6%

2027

21.8%

2026

6.9%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose23 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

78.6%

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

63.9%

xAI, "soft nationalization"

55.8%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?

5Mon

Nein

97%

Community-Prognose23 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

11Mon

$2.25T–$2.5T

+4.5%31%

$1.5T–$1.75T

-0.3%29%

$1.0T–$1.25T

-0.5%27%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen4924,1 $

24h-Volumen100 $

POLYMARKET

If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?

3Mon

Nein

72.4%

27.6%

Community-Prognose209 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will Skims officially announce an IPO?

2.0%2Mon

Before Jan 1, 2028

36%

Before Oct 1, 2027

33%

Before Nov 1, 2027

30%

+16 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätSpread unbekanntMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen23.646,4 $

24h-Volumen278 $

KALSHI

Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement?

5.0%5Mon

Before Apr 1, 2027

42%

Before Jan 1, 2027

+5.0%23%

Before Jul 1, 2026

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen43.268,7 $

24h-Volumen103,1 $

KALSHI

When will Waymo officially announce an IPO?

4.0%4Mon

Before Jan 1, 2028

23%

Before Nov 1, 2027

20%

Before Dec 1, 2027

19%

+16 weitere Ergebnisse

48 • Niedrige QualitätSpread unbekanntMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen31.239,5 $

24h-Volumen170 $

KALSHI

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

5Mon

Nein

94.1%

5.9%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

1Mon

Nein

97.2%

2.8%

Community-Prognose27 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?

2027

34%

2026

-0.5%17%

60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen12.098,8 $

24h-Volumen218,3 $

POLYMARKET

FTX US Recovery %

97.9%

Nein

2.1%

Community-Prognose47 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

5Mon

Nein

84.9%

15.1%

Community-Prognose24 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

5Mon

Nein

92.2%

7.8%

Community-Prognose38 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

5Mon

Nein

69.4%

30.6%

Community-Prognose26 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Twitter / x.com blocked in the EU or Europe? Multimarket for dates

14J

July 1 2033

55.7%

July 1 2034

55.7%

July 1 2035

50%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose15 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

FISA Section 702 reauthorized by which date?

0.1%5T

June 30

-2.0%0%

July 31

-0.1%0%

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen5585,7 $

24h-Volumen317 $

POLYMARKET

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Nein

95.8%

4.2%

Community-Prognose20 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Nein

94.2%

5.8%

Community-Prognose12 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will SBF be pardoned?

73J

Nein

90.1%

9.9%

Community-Prognose46 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026?

5Mon

Nein

94.4%

5.6%

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the FAA Lift the Sonic Boom Ban by June 30, 2028?

81.7%

Nein

18.3%

Community-Prognose16 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Regulierung

Zugehörige Krypto-Assets

Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Anthropic IPO by __?

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?

Love Island UK S13: Top 3 couples

Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?

Conference to Win the National Championship

Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?

CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Will SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?

When will Skims officially announce an IPO?

Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement?

When will Waymo officially announce an IPO?

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?

FTX US Recovery %

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

Twitter / x.com blocked in the EU or Europe? Multimarket for dates

FISA Section 702 reauthorized by which date?

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Will SBF be pardoned?

Pharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026?

Will the FAA Lift the Sonic Boom Ban by June 30, 2028?