Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

0.1% (24h)RegulierungYearlyCorporate Actions Business & Corporate Macro & Economy Commodities5Mon

PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit

JPMorgan Chase 4%-1.8%

Führend unter 19 Optionen

Marktqualitat

64 / 100

Mittlere Qualität

24h-Volumen

426,9 €

Liquidität

45.604,8 €

Hohe Liquidität

Geld / Brief

1.5% / 2.9%

Spread

93.3%

Breiter Spread

7d-Änderung

+0.2%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten

8. Apr. 26, 23:2331. Dez. 26, 23:55

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

JPMorgan Chase4%

Einsatz (USDT)

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank. - The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation.
If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Volumentrend

$486

2. Juli25T Daten26. Juli

Verwandte Märkte

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?

21.284,9 €

1T: 99%

POLYMARKET

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

5,9 €

Ja: 16%

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Which companies will be acquired this year?

446,6 €

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KALSHI

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

227,2 €

Ja: 56%

POLYMARKET

Who will acquire Pinterest this year?

47,2 €

OpenAI: 7%

KALSHI

Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO?

33,4 €

Troy Rohrbaugh: 38%

KALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

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EthereumETH$1,885.33+1.49%

SolanaSOL$75.14+1.58%

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DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.48%

PAX GoldPAXG$4,057.70+0.19%

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank. - The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation.
If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

0.1% (24h)RegulierungYearlyCorporate Actions Business & Corporate Macro & Economy Commodities5Mon

PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit

JPMorgan Chase 4%-1.8%

Führend unter 19 Optionen

Marktqualitat

64 / 100

Mittlere Qualität

24h-Volumen

426,9 €

Liquidität

45.604,8 €

Hohe Liquidität

Geld / Brief

1.5% / 2.9%

Spread

93.3%

Breiter Spread

7d-Änderung

+0.2%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten

8. Apr. 26, 23:2331. Dez. 26, 23:55

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

JPMorgan Chase4%

Einsatz (USDT)

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank. - The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation.
If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Volumentrend

$486

2. Juli25T Daten26. Juli

Verwandte Märkte

CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?

21.284,9 €

1T: 99%

POLYMARKET

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

5,9 €

Ja: 16%

POLYMARKET

Which companies will be acquired this year?

446,6 €

MGM Resorts: 68%

KALSHI

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

227,2 €

Ja: 56%

POLYMARKET

Who will acquire Pinterest this year?

47,2 €

OpenAI: 7%

KALSHI

Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO?

33,4 €

Troy Rohrbaugh: 38%

KALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$64,519.35+0.77%

EthereumETH$1,885.33+1.49%

SolanaSOL$75.14+1.58%

XRPXRP$1.10+1.00%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.48%

PAX GoldPAXG$4,057.70+0.19%

Verwandte Nachrichten

HashKey MENA Secures VARA Approval for Crypto Derivatives as Regulated Futures Market GrowsBlockchain Reporter

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank. - The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation.
If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”