Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
40%+ 89%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat
37 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
915,2 €
Liquidität
1846 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
18.0 pt
Breiter SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-7.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
29. Juli 26, 23:18 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketOpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Gemini Pro model release
KalshiGemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score
KalshiWill Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.