Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
50%+ 81%+0.1ptFührend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat
58 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
2574,3 €
Liquidität
3974,8 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
3.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-1.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
23. Juli 26, 22:57 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.