Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
At least 50% 89%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Marktqualitat
40 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
23,6 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
85.0% / 89.0%
Spread
4.7%
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
20. Mai 26, 14:0031. Dez. 26, 15:00
Trends
Gewähltes Ergebnis
At least 50%89%
Verwandte Märkte
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?
8,8 €At least 70%: 53%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
5879,5 €Google: 14.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
1933,5 €Ja: 6%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
984,1 €None in 2026: 70%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
479,3 €Ja: 26%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?
441,2 €Claude: 67%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
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If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.