Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseZohran Mamdani 27.1%-2.3ptFührend unter 49 Optionen
Prognostiker
214
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
-1.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
30. Nov. 25, 19:39 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
Manifold MarketsWho or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
- In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
- Auch verfügbar auf Futuur — TIME Person of the Year 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 37%
- Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi — Time's Person of the Year for 2026 · Zohran Mamdani 30%
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Zohran Mamdani mit 27% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? entschieden?
- Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year.
- Wo wird Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Polymarket, Futuur, Kalshi gelistet.