Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Zohran Mamdani 30.7%-0.5ptFührend unter 20 Optionen
Prognostiker
281
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+3.1 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Minuten
8. Dez. 25, 16:45 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
Manifold MarketsWho or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRegeln
This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year.
- It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
- If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below.
- If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.
- Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options.
- The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.