Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 50.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet23. März 24, 19:19 UTC2. Jan. 45, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a human die on the moon before a human walks on mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Open until either event happens
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
- Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 50% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? entschieden?
- Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? soll am 2. Januar 2045 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Open until either event happens