Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:05 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 56.6%
Prognostiker
37
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet28. Jan. 24, 20:24 UTC7. Jan. 00, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhich organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
Manifold MarketsNew pandemic before 2028?
PolymarketMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1) before a human ventures out onto the Martian surface.
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors
- Fusion reactor questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1
