Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 98.2%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet3. Feb. 24, 14:27 UTC1. März 27, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Anthropic announce progress on a cure for cancer before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill we get a cure for cancer before 2038?
Manifold MarketsWill we get a cure for cancer before 2037?
Manifold MarketsWill we get a cure for cancer before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
- In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached.
- This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2027.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-e2cd2abbbed6
