Inflation

Fed Decision in July?

No change

+5.4%79%

25 bps increase

-5.9%20%

50+ bps increase

-0.1%1%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzNo change79%· ±0 Pkt.

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen93,4 Mio. $

24h-Volumen1,9 Mio. $

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike in 2026?

4Mon

72%

Nein

28%

100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen4,7 Mio. $

24h-Volumen58.252,6 $

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike by which date?

6.0%3Mon

October Meeting

69%

September Meeting

61%

July Meeting

-6.0%20%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

100 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen1,5 Mio. $

24h-Volumen8571,5 $

POLYMARKET

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

17T

Above 3.0%

92%

Above 3.1%

-6.0%90%

Above 3.2%

-8.0%80%

+18 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen542.967,3 $

24h-Volumen10.149,4 $

KALSHI

CPI in July

1.0%17T

Above -0.4%

+1.0%98%

Above -0.3%

97%

Above -0.2%

88%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

89 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen277.814,2 $

24h-Volumen5578,7 $

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Annual

0.1%16T

3.3%

-0.5%37%

3.4%

37%

3.5%

20%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen104.354,1 $

24h-Volumen5105,2 $

POLYMARKET

How high will inflation get this year?

21.0%6Mon

At least 4.0%

100%

At least 4.5%

-21.0%35%

At least 5.0%

21%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen591.248,6 $

24h-Volumen952,7 $

KALSHI

US gasoline CPI for July

1.0%17T

Above 320ㅤ

99%

Above 300ㅤ

96%

Above 310ㅤ

96%

+24 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen104.748,7 $

24h-Volumen3264,8 $

KALSHI

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

2.0%4T

Above 0.0%

97%

Above 0.1%

-2.0%71%

Above 0.2%

-2.0%3%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-Referenz≤0.0%98%· ±95 Pkt.

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen107.215,5 $

24h-Volumen3573,6 $

KALSHI

July Inflation US - Monthly

3.0%16T

≥0.1%

+3.0%68%

0.0%

26%

-0.1%

-0.4%7%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen48.738 $

24h-Volumen2283 $

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0.9%5Mon

2 (50

-0.5%33%

0 (0

+0.5%30%

1 (25

30%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen55.801,3 $

24h-Volumen1047,2 $

POLYMARKET

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

2.0%1J

Nein

79%

+2.0%21%

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen25,9 Mio. $

24h-Volumen147 $

KALSHI

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17T

Exactly 3.3%

34%

Exactly 3.4%

31%

Exactly 3.5%

25%

+23 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen169.897,9 $

24h-Volumen559,1 $

KALSHI

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

+28.5%52.3%

Republican president, <2%

-4.5%23.2%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

-10.3%14.9%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose32 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will CPI get this year?

21.0%5Mon

Above 4.1%

99%

Above 3.8%

93%

Above 3.9%

93%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen110.313,2 $

24h-Volumen445 $

KALSHI

US economic state at the end of 2026?

3.5%6Mon

Soft Landing

+3.5%62%

Overheating

24%

Stagflation

+0.5%14%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzSoft landing62%· ±0 Pkt.

79 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen55.196,9 $

24h-Volumen1757,3 $

POLYMARKET

State of the economy at the end of 2026

2.3%5Mon

Soft landing

+2.3%62%

Overheating

-5.5%20%

Stagflation

12%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzSoft landing62%· ±0 Pkt.

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen51.520,2 $

24h-Volumen1052,4 $

KALSHI

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

1.0%17T

Above 2.1%

+1.0%98%

Above 2.2%

86%

Above 2.3%

80%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen68.857,7 $

24h-Volumen498,7 $

KALSHI

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

27.5%4T

↑ $4.00

+41.5%100%

↑ $3.90

+15.4%100%

↑ $4.25

-27.5%8%

+8 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen9225,4 $

24h-Volumen2820,1 $

POLYMARKET

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

7.5%5Mon

4.00% to 4.49%

+7.0%42%

4.50% to 4.99%

+7.5%21%

3.50% to 3.99%

-3.1%19%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen46.220,2 $

24h-Volumen601,2 $

POLYMARKET

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

3.0%5Mon

4.1-4.4%

+0.5%31%

3.8-4.1%

-0.5%18%

3.2-3.5%

-1.9%9%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

79 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen30.193,8 $

24h-Volumen278,7 $

POLYMARKET

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

0.5%16T

2.4%

+4.5%41%

2.5%

+0.5%25%

≤2.2%

-0.7%13%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen17.421,4 $

24h-Volumen500 $

POLYMARKET

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

5Mon

3.5–3.9%

+2.1%34%

2.5–2.9%

+0.9%22%

4.0-4.4%

+0.5%10%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen13.838,5 $

24h-Volumen557,4 $

POLYMARKET

US Core PCE (June 2026)

0.0

98%

0.1

67%

0.4

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-Referenz≤0.0%98%· ±95 Pkt.

68 • Mittlere QualitätSpread unbekanntHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen457 $

24h-Volumen457 $

ROTHERA

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

1.0%17T

Exactly -0.2%

88%

Exactly 0.1%

29%

Exactly 0.0%

-1.0%28%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

68 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen14.359,6 $

24h-Volumen334,1 $

KALSHI

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

5Mon

$300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian)

+1.2%99%

$350M – $399.9M (High-end breakout)

-1.0%0.3%

Less than $200M (Implies a collapse in week 2)

-0.1%0.2%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose30 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will Wendy's say during their next earnings call?

45.0%5Mon

FreshAI

80%

Delivery

79%

Frosty

+9.0%76%

+13 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen10.303,1 $

24h-Volumen1109,3 $

KALSHI

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

0.5%16T

$2.00–$2.25

81%

$2.25–$2.50

-0.5%12%

$1.75–$2.00

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen15.574,5 $

24h-Volumen166 $

POLYMARKET

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.7%5Mon

0.6 – 1.0%

43%

1.1 – 1.5%

43%

1.6 – 2.0%

+0.1%8%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen61.761,8 $

24h-Volumen155,5 $

POLYMARKET

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

1.0%4Mon

Nein

72%

+1.0%28%

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen37.145,5 $

24h-Volumen234 $

KALSHI

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

6Mon

y ≥ 2.0%

100%

y ≥ 2.5%

100%

y ≥ 3.0%

100%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose18 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Core PCE MoM - June 2026

0.2%

55%

0.1%

-2.8%31%

0.3%

-1.3%6%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-Referenz≤0.0%98%· ±95 Pkt.

60 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen8561,5 $

24h-Volumen110 $

POLYMARKET

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

5Mon

Silicon Data

+3.4%44%

Ornn

-1.8%23.8%

SemiAnalysis

-0.8%12.2%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose8 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

5Mon

Alphabet

+6.6%95.4%

NVIDIA

94.6%

Microsoft

+5.7%90.2%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose9 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

56.3%

Nein

43.7%

Community-Prognose18 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will inflation get in 2026?

0.5%5Mon

Above 3%

+1.4%100%

Above 4%

+2.0%100%

Above 3.5%

+0.1%100%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

72 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1,3 Mio. $

24h-Volumen6,3 $

POLYMARKET

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

3.0%17T

Exactly 2.4%

38%

Exactly 2.5%

26%

Exactly 2.3%

+4.0%12%

+13 weitere Ergebnisse

60 • Mittlere QualitätSpread unbekanntHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen604.736,6 $

24h-Volumen28 $

KALSHI

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

5Mon

80%

Nein

20%

Community-Prognose144 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

1.0%5Mon

Above 6.5%

100%

Above 6.6%

97%

Above 6.7%

77%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen61.575,2 $

24h-Volumen85,5 $

KALSHI

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

5Mon

Nein

96.7%

3.3%

Community-Prognose11 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

1.0%17T

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

20%

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: 0.1% or below

14%

Headline: Exactly 0.0%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

13%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen71.614,1 $

24h-Volumen11 $

KALSHI

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

0.1%16T

0.2%

34%

0.1%

26%

0.3%

-0.1%25%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

83 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen61.568,3 $

24h-Volumen19,8 $

POLYMARKET

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5Mon

5.00-5.49%

39%

4.50-4.99%

26%

5.50-5.99%

-1.4%12%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

49 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen77.044,8 $

24h-Volumen0 $

POLYMARKET

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

100%

He leaves Argentina during his first term

100%

He travels to Chile during his first term

100%

+67 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose162 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Nein

84.2%

15.8%

Community-Prognose50 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

73J

79.3%

Nein

20.7%

Community-Prognose58 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will South Africa collapse?

23J

After 2050

50%

Before 2050

48.8%

Before 2045

45%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose22 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

CPI-U index in July

17T

Above 335.8

98%

Above 333.6

88%

Above 334.0

55%

+9 weitere Ergebnisse

40 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen51.741,7 $

24h-Volumen0 $

KALSHI

Zugehörige Krypto-Assets

Fed Decision in July?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike by which date?

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

CPI in July

July Inflation US - Annual

How high will inflation get this year?

US gasoline CPI for July

How much will core PCE increase in Jun 2026?

July Inflation US - Monthly

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

How high will CPI get this year?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Will gas hit __ by end of July?

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

Core CPI YoY - July 2026

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

US Core PCE (June 2026)

CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?

What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?

What will Wendy's say during their next earnings call?

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

China Annual Inflation 2026

Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

Core PCE MoM - June 2026

Who will offer the most canonical compute price index at the end of 2026?

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core

Core CPI MoM - July 2026

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

When will South Africa collapse?

CPI-U index in July