Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
GeopolíticaOne-OffSociedad y culturaSalud y medicinaEuropa8aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 50.9%
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7
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binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado6 jul 25, 0:09 UTC15 jun 35, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsReglas
Disasters which count
- Nuclear strike or accident
- Infrastructure collapse
- War also counts
- Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related (many people die crashing cars due to seeing a Kaiju for example).
- Note: things that have always been that way probably won't count as a disaster.
