Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
GeopolíticaOne-OffSalud y medicinaEuropa8aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.5%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado5 jul 25, 18:08 UTC30 jun 35, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsReglas
Disasters which count
- Nuclear strike or accident
- Infrastructure collapse
- War also counts
- Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related.
- A death by disaster is an unintended (by the victim, at a prior state in time) death.
