Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
PolíticaOne-OffSalud y medicinaClimaGeopolíticaRusia / UcraniaDeportesAjedrezEuropaIA1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 76.3%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 29 minutos
11 sept 23, 16:24 UTC2 ene 28, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
We will evaluate by:
- 1) selecting an article from news
- 2) paste the article into an LLM along with the question: "based on this article, how confident are you that this event has happened from 0-100%? Please answer by filling in this template: {" text of disaster from list above", probability: X%}
- If the average probability across leadingLLMs or the best AI agents at the time, across five tries each, is over 70%, this can resolve true.
- So overall we use the LLM to evaluate the claim based on an article.
- I'm going to try to seek truth as much as possible and not accept a trick or false or unintuitive resolution.
