Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 94.9%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado3 mar 24, 5:59 UTC1 ene 31, 15:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market resolves as "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, artificial intelligence (AI) systems have demonstrated the capability to predict major natural disasters (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, and floods) with at least one week's notice.
- For the resolution to be "Yes," these predictions must be consistently accurate, with no unforeseen major natural disasters occurring in the years 2028, 2029, and 2030.
- A "major" natural disaster is defined as one resulting in 1,000 or more deaths or causing significant disruption, such as the evacuation of over 100,000 people, substantial destruction of property, or severe economic impacts.
