Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Smarkets data is temporarily unavailable. Odds shown are the last values we collected on Oct 7, 2026.
Current implied probability
2029 or Later 33.3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$284.9K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 16 days ago
StaleTrends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market concerns the date Nigel Farage ceases to be permanent leader of Reform UK.