Will the US House Speaker be elected on the first ballot?

PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

This market resolved: No

Limited resolution evidence

CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.

Current implied probability

Market quality

15 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Liquidity unknown

Market data

Updated 185 days ago

Stale

Dec 16, 22, 12:00 AM UTCJan 10, 23, 12:00 AM UTC

Probability Timeline

Yes0%

No100%

Won

Yes

Lost

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the House for the 118th United States Congress is elected on the first ballot.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is information from official US Government sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any individual elected to be, appointed to be, or serving as Speaker pro tempore in the 118th congress will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

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