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Data as of Aug 25, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Manuela D'Ávila 45.5%+2.5ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$9.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+19.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 10:11 AMOct 4, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
- Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won.
- If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market.
- This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
- If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-6.0pt54%
- Ralph Norman+7.0pt37.8%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+8.6pt79%
- October 31+20.0pt67%
- September 30+19.0pt48%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17.8%
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt13.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $193.7M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+4.0pt86%
- Yes-4.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
- Darline Graham, 0-3%+6.0pt18.4%
- Darline Graham, 3-6%+2.0pt15.6%
- Ralph Norman, 0-3%+3.0pt13.8%
+15 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.1pt34.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt3%
+15 more outcomes
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- Next French Presidential Election
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place?
- Polymarket prices Manuela D'Ávila at 46% as of August 26, 2026.
- When does Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place resolve?
- Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026.
- How is Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.