PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 10:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 92%
No 92%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$10.3K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$1.5K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 26, 10:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican Party before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Lisa Murkowski win the 2028 US Senate election in Alaska?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 general election?
ForecastExWill the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election?
ForecastExWill the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican party win the Oklahoma general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
