PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Goldman Sachs 55%-0.5%Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$21.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 10.0%
Spread
66.7%
Wide spread7d Change
-6.0%
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 4:21 PMDec 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Goldman Sachs55%
Compare venues· Goldman Sachs
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall85% match · verified | Low | 65% | +10pt | $27.3 | $7.8K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 55% | 0pt | $0 | $21.4K | 7 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?
1.0%1y
-1.0%65%
25%
-1.0%5%
+3 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$14.5K
24h Vol$27.3
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI.
- If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
- If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter.
- If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI.
- A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$22Jul 417d of dataJul 21
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This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI.
- If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
- If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter.
- If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI.
- A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.