PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 200+
Resolved: Aug 25, 2026, 7:04 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
200+ 100%+31.4ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.6K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+63.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 14, 26, 9:30 PMAug 23, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
200+100%
160-1790%
180-19921%
<1604%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
- If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
- In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
