Current implied probability
AfD 86%+5.0pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$11.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
83.0% / 88.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:18 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
- This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
- This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
- This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
- Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD??
- Polymarket prices AfD at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD? resolve?
- Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD? is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.