538: Will voters prefer Republicans over Democrats by Election Day?
Politics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
YesWon
NoLost
Rules
If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans a greater percentage of support than Democrats on any date from October 4 through November 8, 2022 (inclusive) during the check times, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022".
- The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/.
- Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- This resolution source for this market will be checked every day at 8 PM ET, with the final check being on November 8, 8 PM ET.
