538: Will voters prefer Democrats or Republicans on Election Day?
Politics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Republicans
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Republicans 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleOct 27, 22, 12:00 AMNov 8, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Democrats0%
Republicans100%
100%
0%
Rules
If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for the date of November 8, 2022, at check time, this market will resolve to "Democrats".
- If the same graph shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for November 8, 2022, at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans".
- If the same graph shows Democrats and Republicans at an equal percentage of support for the resolution date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022".
- The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/.
- Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
