This market resolved: OpenAI
Resolved: Sep 28, 2026, 7:27 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
OpenAI
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 28, 2026, 3:12 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Xiaomi3%
Nvidia3%
MiniMax4%
Qwen1%
xAI4%
OpenAI100%
Google0%
Z.ai0%
Tencent0%
Meta0%
Anthropic0%
OpenAIWon
DeepSeekLost
Z.aiLost
TencentLost
XiaomiLost
GoogleLost
NvidiaLost
AnthropicLost
MiniMaxLost
QwenLost
MetaLost
xAILost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026.
- A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026.
- The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
- This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 are first displayed.
- If the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 2, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time.
- If no data is available for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".