will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77.5% as of October 27, 2026.

When does will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? resolve?

will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.

How is will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt56%
• Google-1.5pt35%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.2M

24h Vol

$186K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+8.0pt95.9%
• Anthropic-5.8pt4.1%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt95%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt94.5%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.1pt59.7%
• Gemini-2.3pt30.1%
• ChatGPT+0.2pt

POLYMARKET

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

• December 31-7.0pt81%
• December 15-13.5pt74%
• November 30+3.5pt61%

+5 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-2.0pt29.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.3pt23.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.9pt16.5%

+7 more outcomes

• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?