Current community forecast
Yes 77.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 22, 25, 6:12 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRules
I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? resolve?
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.