Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.6%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 28, 24, 8:24 PM UTCJan 7, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic before 2028?
PolymarketMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1) before a human ventures out onto the Martian surface.
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors
- Fusion reactor questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars? resolve?
- Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on January 7, 2100.
- How is Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1) before a human ventures out onto the Martian surface.