Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.4%
Forecasters
87
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 26, 24, 11:48 AM UTCMar 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get fusion reactors before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we get fusion reactors before 2041?
Manifold MarketsWill we get fusion reactors before 2031?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created before we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors