Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 67.4%
Forecasters
87
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 24, 11:48 AM UTCMar 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?
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Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created before we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors
