Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 64.1%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 11, 24, 4:29 PM UTCMar 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before we discover alien life?
Manifold MarketsWill we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWill we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before a human ventures out onto the Martian surface.
- Room temperature superconductor questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-e940f30870be
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ebfceb8eefc5
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars? resolve?
- Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2100.
- How is Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before a human ventures out onto the Martian surface.