What are the current odds for Will Trump/Elon actually decrease deficit spending by more than 1T??

Manifold Markets prices No at 98.4% as of October 30, 2026.

Will Trump/Elon actually decrease deficit spending by more than 1T?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 98.4%

Forecasters

102

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 44 minutes ago

Nov 6, 24, 4:45 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC

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Outcome24hChance

Rules

According to https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide, we spend 6.75T per year, up 10% from last year.

We take in as taxes 4.92T as tax revenue.
Elon musk has said that he wants to cut the govt spending by "at least 2t" https://thehill.com/business/4966789-elon-musk-skepticism-2-trillion-spending-cuts/, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/elon-musk-claims-he-can-cut-2-trillion-from-us-budget-at-donald-trump-rally/articleshow/114672947.cms?from=mdr .
"The amount by which spending exceeded revenue, $1.83 trillion in 2024, is referred to as deficit spending."
Resolution: By the end of Trump's term, will the quoted number on fiscaldata.treasury.gov for deficit spending be less than 0.83T