Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNeither 92.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Jun 23, 25, 8:52 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 7:18 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Increase if, by the end of Trump's second term, the net effect of all immigration-related legislation he signs into law is a projected increase of at least 10% in annual green card issuances (specifically because of the legislation).
- Decrease if the projected effect is a decrease of at least 10%.
- Neither if the net projected effect is -10% to +10%, or no relevant law is signed.
- Resolution is based on projections from nonpartisan congressional sources like CBO, or consensus among think tanks etc. (with differing politics between them, if possible).
- I will not bet on this market.
