Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.2%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 5, 26, 7:44 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, any region of the Russian Federation is officially declared or classified as experiencing a "famine" by any of the following entities:
- The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) or the Famine Review Committee (FRC) classifies any area within the Russian Federation as being in Phase 5 (Famine).
- Any major United Nations agency (such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP), or UNICEF) formally declares a "famine" within any region of Russia.
- The Government of the Russian Federation officially declares a state of "famine" (голод) or issues a federal emergency decree acknowledging famine conditions within the country's borders.
- A major, internationally recognized humanitarian organization (such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Doctors Without Borders (MSF), or the International Rescue Committee (IRC)) publishes an official report or statement explicitly confirming that a famine is occurring in Russia.