Current community forecast
Yes 78.4%
Forecasters
54
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 23, 24, 1:18 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
From: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872.
- "Will "AI safety" be considered a coherent movement with leaders and an agenda vs a descriptor for some cluster of skills/techniques that some within AI-focused companies are familiar with?"
- Resolves YES if there is indeed a coherent movement with the agenda of AI Notkilleveryoneism.
- It must have at least one identifiable leader figure, and an agenda.
- It need not still have the name "AI Safety" but it must remain relevant.
- Resolves NO if this is no longer the case, meaning that when people think of how we prevent AI from killing everyone, they think about technical techniques within AI companies, or similar.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029? resolve?
- Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2029.
- How is Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872.