Will the US–Denmark–Greenland security agreement be signed before October 15, 2026?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffGeopoliticsPoliticsUS PoliticsEurope25dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.4%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 9:51 PM UTCOct 16, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
**Resolution criteria** Resolves YES if, before 2026-10-15 23:59 ET, the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland formally SIGN the Greenland security/defence agreement that President Trump announced on 2026-09-18 (the deal expanding the US military presence while keeping Greenland under Danish sovereignty).
- A signing counts even if parliamentary ratification in Denmark or Greenland is still pending — this market is about the signature, not the ratification.
- Resolves NO if no such signing has occurred by the deadline. **Named oracle:** reporting from at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press, or an official statement from the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs / Statsministeriet.
- If those sources conflict, the Danish government's own statement governs. **What this market is NOT about:** it does not resolve on any purchase, annexation, or transfer of sovereignty over Greenland.
- Existing markets already cover acquisition.
- This one covers only whether the announced security agreement gets signed on schedule. **Background** On 2026-09-18 Trump announced a deal with Denmark and Greenland granting the US a permanent expanded military presence, barring non-NATO bases, and limiting adversary investment — while explicitly recognising Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination.
