Will the US pass a federal law with binding safety requirements for frontier AI models before the end of 2027?
One-OffRegulationAIUS Politics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 30, 26, 4:25 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, a US federal law is signed that imposes binding requirements (testing, reporting, licensing or liability) specifically on developers of frontier or general-purpose AI models.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, state laws and laws that only fund research or create advisory bodies do not count.
- Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case.
- Its 2027 worst-case list included "Hearings are held, nothing passes; lobbying money beats public concern." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored.
- The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case
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