Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
One-OffTechPoliticsRegulation2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 87.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 28, 23, 1:54 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 mandating information security protections (including cyber, physical, and personnel security) for frontier AI models.
- These security measures should be in place during model training to limit unintended proliferation of dangerous models.
- Frontier AI models are those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today).
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
