Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Corporate ActionsAIOne-OffUS Politics1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 6:53 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, the United States government (including federal agencies) takes functional control of Anthropic PBC or its successor entities.
- Functional control is defined as the government assuming direct management, operational control, or the power to override the board of directors and executive leadership regarding core business decisions, development, or deployment of AI models.
- This includes, but is not limited to:
- An official government takeover, nationalization, or eminent domain acquisition of the company.
- A court-ordered receivership or government-mandated management replacement resulting in direct federal control.
Open markets
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
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- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
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- $213K
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- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027? resolve?
- Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria