Will the trump administration do large-scale enforcement against grey/black-market feminizing HRT?
One-OffHealth & MedicineUS PoliticsCrime & Justice2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 21, 25, 5:23 PM UTCJan 29, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
might be resolved based partially on vibes / second-hand information, might resolve early (if it happens)
- Update 2025-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
- YES will be resolved if:
- 3 reports of American homebrewers being arrested (considered yes on 1-2 reports depending on other information and the number of American homebrewers).
- Significant actions making it harder or riskier to obtain HRT from international sources, such as a large fraction of packages seized or a significant number of arrests (>10) of people ordering from them.
- A significant number of federal arrests for possession without a prescription (>10).
