Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffPolitics1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.1%
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2
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 13, 26, 7:14 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill "Is Mythos good at cyber because it kept hacki..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreversible power shift is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.