Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffTechAISociety & Culture1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.6%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 26, 6:58 PMFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM
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Rules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem pretty legible is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $68,000 or above99%
- $75,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets August 28 - September 4, 2026?
- 200-219+7.0pt26.2%
- 180-199+4.0pt22.4%
- 220-239+4.0pt19.6%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $71,000 or above98%
- $69,000 or above+1.0pt98%
- $68,000 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 1, 2026?
- 76° to 77°+11.0pt55.7%
- 75° or below+14.0pt33%
- 78° to 79°-21.0pt6.6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIETH price on Sep 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $2,360 or above99%
- $2,240 or above99%
- $2,280 or above98%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $192.4K
- 24h Vol
- $192.4K
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 75,000 to 79,999.99-0.7pt10.8%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99+1.2pt10.8%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+1.0pt9.9%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Elon Musk # tweets August 31 - September 2, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 1, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 1, 2026?
- Lowest temperature in Miami on Sep 1, 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 1, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 1, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.